Last fall, I produced a model to estimate how far the BEAD funding might go, using estimates of the unserved and underserved from the old Form 477 data. The prediction was that with an optimal allocation between states, there would be almost enough money to reach all the unserved and underseved. Well, we’re getting closer to real and final data, and an update is in: $41.4 billion at an average national cost of $6,214 per location should reach 6.7 million locations. Considering the 3.5 million locations already committed to by RDOF, we should be able to reach 10.1 million locations, or 76% of the total unserved and underserved nationally.
Feb 1, 2023·edited Feb 1, 2023Liked by Mike Conlow
Are you taking into account ARPA funding? There are hundreds of millions in funding that states are taking advantage of from that bill, and those areas will be considered served, since Federal money has been awarded to deploy broadband there. That is supposed to apply to any awards that are made up until the point that the NITA makes their final calculation of unserved areas for a State, even where construction has not begun. The other variable is 5G service from licensed wireless providers like T-Mobile and Verizon. They will be putting on the map all of the areas they now cover with mid-band or better 5G service, which will exceed the 25 x 3 threshold. However, in that case, those areas are not supposed to be added to the map unless they were in operation and available to customers as of December 31, 2022.
(1) This is an East of the Mississippi / West of the Mississippi division. East of the Mississippi River looks pretty good. West of the Mississippi looks pretty terrible.
(2) Not enough money to extend fiber broadband to all unserved and underserved locations. No money left over to address even bigger broadband adoption gaps.
(3) There is significant skepticism about the "houses passed" metric being used by fiber advocates (i.e., that it severely underestimates true costs to connect a home). Perhaps a worst case, but you might want to look at average costs for USDA Reconnect grants and loans. Even assuming your cost estimates are good estimates, will the private sector be willing to raise 25% or more matches with average costs exceeding $15,000 per household. Is the private sector willing to invest $4,000 or more per household to deploy fiber broadband networks in rural areas?
Are you taking into account ARPA funding? There are hundreds of millions in funding that states are taking advantage of from that bill, and those areas will be considered served, since Federal money has been awarded to deploy broadband there. That is supposed to apply to any awards that are made up until the point that the NITA makes their final calculation of unserved areas for a State, even where construction has not begun. The other variable is 5G service from licensed wireless providers like T-Mobile and Verizon. They will be putting on the map all of the areas they now cover with mid-band or better 5G service, which will exceed the 25 x 3 threshold. However, in that case, those areas are not supposed to be added to the map unless they were in operation and available to customers as of December 31, 2022.
Excellent work. Keep it up! Three quick thoughts:
(1) This is an East of the Mississippi / West of the Mississippi division. East of the Mississippi River looks pretty good. West of the Mississippi looks pretty terrible.
(2) Not enough money to extend fiber broadband to all unserved and underserved locations. No money left over to address even bigger broadband adoption gaps.
(3) There is significant skepticism about the "houses passed" metric being used by fiber advocates (i.e., that it severely underestimates true costs to connect a home). Perhaps a worst case, but you might want to look at average costs for USDA Reconnect grants and loans. Even assuming your cost estimates are good estimates, will the private sector be willing to raise 25% or more matches with average costs exceeding $15,000 per household. Is the private sector willing to invest $4,000 or more per household to deploy fiber broadband networks in rural areas?
Thanks!