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Nov 27, 2023Liked by Mike Conlow

Mike,

Great observations.

One quibble. You assume in your Stockton, CA example "I suspect that almost every home in this subdivision subscribes to the Comcast service and that very few use the fixed wireless options." Absent supporting data, that is a questionable assumption. Nobody ever went broke overestimating the degree to which consumers hate their cable providers. On top of that, VZ and TMUS price their FWA plans much lower than the MSOs, especially with the mobile+fixed bundle. Anecdotally, a lot of people have at least tried out VZ and TMUS FWA service in hope that it might be a viable alternative. *If* VZ has good C-band coverage in the subdivision, it might have a higher share than you'd expect.

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author

That's a fair quibble. And I tried to address that I think there is evolution at the moment but that it's unclear how it will shake out long-term.

I also tried to address that I think FCC has data that would help with this question. The Census tract level data behind this table would be instructive for how many subscribers non-wired options are taking from wired ISPs. (Admittedly the data freshness here would be an issue. We wouldn't see people currently switching to wireless for ~6 months)

https://imgur.com/a/HmK5Ezz

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